Share of sessions that closed higher: Tuesday after a down Monday against any other day after a down day
- Tuesday after a down Monday
- Any other session after a down session (base rate)
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October 29, 2026 · 3 min read
Turnaround Tuesday in ES and NQ, Checked Against Its Base Rate
After a down Monday, ES closed higher on Tuesday 53.2% of the time since 2011. Any other session that followed a down session closed higher 55.8% of the time. Turnaround Tuesday, checked on ES and NQ futures against its base rate.
Turnaround Tuesday is old trading-floor lore: when stocks fall on a Monday, they tend to recover on Tuesday. The pattern gets quoted after most down Mondays. It needs a base rate to mean anything. Stock index futures close higher on more than half of all sessions, and a down day is often followed by an up day whatever the weekday. The question is whether Tuesday after a down Monday does better than any other day after a down day.
The base rate
We took every Monday on S&P 500 futures (ES) and Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ) that closed below the previous session, and asked whether the next day, Tuesday, closed above Monday's close. The comparison is every other session that followed a down session, on any weekday.
| Condition | Market | Sessions | Closed higher | 95% interval | Average change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tuesday after a down Monday | ES | 344 | 53.2% | 48–58% | +0.17% |
| Any other day after a down day (base rate) | ES | 1,406 | 55.8% | 53–58% | +0.04% |
| Every session | ES | 3,970 | 54.5% | 53–56% | +0.05% |
| Tuesday after a down Monday | NQ | 280 | 56.4% | 51–62% | +0.17% |
| Any other day after a down day (base rate) | NQ | 1,215 | 57.3% | 54–60% | +0.11% |
| Every session | NQ | 3,488 | 56.1% | 54–58% | +0.07% |
On ES, Tuesday after a down Monday closed higher 183 times in 344, or 53.2%. Any other session after a down session closed higher 55.8% of the time, and any session at all 54.5%. The Tuesday did not turn around more often than an ordinary day. It did slightly less often, by 2.6 points, which a circular-shift placebo puts at p = 0.38. On NQ the gap is under a point, 56.4% against 57.3%, at p = 0.83.
Size rather than direction
The average change tells a different story from the count. On ES the Tuesday after a down Monday averaged +0.17%, against +0.04% for other sessions after a down session. Closing higher less often but averaging more means the up Tuesdays were larger, not more frequent. The placebo puts that ES difference at p = 0.085, and the NQ difference, +0.17% against +0.11%, at p = 0.49. Four comparisons were made, two measures on two markets, and the best of them is p = 0.085: about what the best of four looks produces when nothing is there.
Two eras
Split in two, the share of up Tuesdays moves around. On ES it was 55.1% in 2011–2018 and 51.0% in 2019–2026, against 55.6% and 56.0% for the base rate. On NQ it was 61.7% in 2013–2018, above the base rate, then 52.0% in 2019–2026, below it. The average change leaned towards Tuesday in both ES eras, +0.12% against +0.03% and then +0.22% against +0.06%, but on NQ it flipped: +0.21% against +0.04%, then +0.14% against +0.15%.
| Market | Era | Tuesdays after a down Monday | Closed higher | 95% interval | Average | Other days after a down day | Closed higher | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES | 2011–2018 | 187 | 55.1% | 48–62% | +0.12% | 692 | 55.6% | +0.03% |
| ES | 2019–2026 | 157 | 51.0% | 43–59% | +0.22% | 714 | 56.0% | +0.06% |
| NQ | 2013–2018 | 128 | 61.7% | 53–70% | +0.21% | 519 | 56.5% | +0.04% |
| NQ | 2019–2026 | 152 | 52.0% | 44–60% | +0.14% | 696 | 57.9% | +0.15% |
Share of sessions that closed higher, by era, with 95% intervals
- Tuesday after a down Monday
- Any other session after a down session
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What the number does and does not mean
In these futures since 2011, a down Monday has not made a higher Tuesday close more likely than any other down day does. That is a null result for the version of the stat usually quoted, which is about direction. The average change leans towards Tuesday on ES, but it rests on the size of a minority of up days, it is not significant as the best of four looks, and it does not hold on NQ in the recent era. Tuesday after an up Monday closed higher 51.1% of the time on ES, so Tuesdays in general have been no better than other days here.
Reading the next Turnaround Tuesday stat
- Base rate: compare with every other day that follows a down day, not with 50%. Index futures closed higher on about 55% of sessions here.
- Measure: a stat about how often the market closes higher is not a stat about how far. Ask which one is being quoted.
- Era: the NQ pattern looked stronger in 2013–2018 and weaker since. Ask for both halves of the sample.
Data and method. E-mini S&P 500 (ES) and E-mini Nasdaq-100 (NQ) futures, regular-session closes (4:00 pm ET, 1:00 pm on early-close days), ES from 3 January 2011 and NQ from 2 January 2013, both to 21 October 2026. A down Monday is a Monday whose close is below the previous session's close. The Tuesday must be the next trading day after that Monday, so a Monday holiday breaks the pair rather than shifting it. A day-to-day change across a contract roll is left out, and so is any pair containing one. The base rate is every other session whose previous session closed down, on any weekday. Intervals are 95% Wilson intervals. The shift placebo slides the down-Monday marks along the series of sessions that followed a down session by every offset of at least 26 sessions; p is the share of offsets producing a difference at least as large. Two measures were tested on two markets: the share of sessions that closed higher and the average change.